They say you should never
draft for fit, especially in the lottery. However, it is important for team’s
rookies to have a place to fit in and play wherever they get drafted to. So today, we will be looking at Jayson Tatum and evaluating how
well he fits in regards to the Celtics' current roster.
Vitals
Position
|
Height
|
Wingspan
|
3 PT %
|
Points
|
Rebounds
|
Assists
|
F
|
6'8"
|
6'11"
|
34.2
|
16.8
|
7.3
|
2.1
|
Projected Lineup:
PG: Isaiah Thomas
SG: Avery Bradley
SF: Jae Crowder
PF: Some Free Agent (Forwards Currently Under Contract Include
Jaylen Brown and Jordan Mickey)
C: Al Horford
The hope is that Jayson Tatum brings fills one of two big
holes that this Celtic team has had for years, getting a bucket when nothing
else works (the other hole being rebounding). The Celtics are full of guys who can
score, but really Isaiah Thomas is the only one who can be depended on to
create a shot reliably for himself. Jayson Tatum has the skills and the tools to
be an excellent isolation scorer due to his shooting, ball handling, and length.
Scoring
Tatum is one of the best isolation scorers in this draft. He
averaged 1.047 points per possession in isolation plays this season, placing
him in the 86th percentile of all college players. He’s not your
traditional isolation scorer though. A lot of his damage is done in the post
where he deploys a wide arsenal of moves coupled with excellent footwork to punish
defenders. In the post, he averaged 1.087 points per possession, putting him in
the 94th percentile of college players. This man knows what this
game is about. Here
is a great example of his ability in the post. The defender knows he can go
either direction to score on him. Tatum uses that knowledge to his advantage
using a quick spin fake into a fall-away jumper that is impossible to block.
Tatum employs similar moves in the post and on the
perimeter. He loves jab steps, rip throughs, and pull up jumpers, oftentimes
using all these on one play. His length and high release point makes it tough for
smaller defenders to contest his jumpshot, while his dribble moves allow him to
keep bigs on their heels.
This is exactly what the Celtics need on the wing. Avery
Bradley is slowly becoming more of a scorer, but 35% of his shots are still of
the catch and shoot variety. Gerald Green was probably the only wing the
Celtics had last year that would consistently look to create his own shot. The
Celtics were 2nd in assists per game last year, despite having a shoot
first point guard. This is due to the Brad Stevens ball movement offense, but a
lack of playmakers also forces the team to play that way. That is by no means a
bad thing by the way. Ball movement and floor spacing are key in the modern
NBA, but so is being able to score even when good defense is played. When
everything breaks down, the Celtics need another option to score. Jayson Tatum
could be that guy.
Rebounding
The Celtics have a problem rebounding. Everyone knows this.
I am not going to spend too much time on their problem as a team. While he’s
not the answer to all of the Celtics’ woes, Tatum is a superb rebounder for his
position and I believe that will translate to the pros. He averaged 7.3 boards
per game in college. His length and positioning are what gets him most of
these. He is not an exceptional athlete, nor incredibly strong. But he has good
size and long arms and he knows where to put himself to grab a good number of
rebounds.
Tatum played mostly power forward at Duke and I would not be
surprised to see him get most of his minutes at the 4 spot in the NBA as well,
due to the high number of wings Boston is looking likely to have. The Celtics sorely
need some bigs who can rebound, as Avery Bradley cannot continue to be one of
the team’s top rebounders. If Tatum can bulk up some more, he should be able to
fill this hole nicely for the Celtics. This could lead to a team that already
plays fast to play even faster. Against teams with good rebounding bigs, the Celtics
would often send four or five players to the defensive glass to ensure a
rebound. This makes fast breaks much less common. However, if they could get
away with just sending Tatum and whoever is playing center, that would allow
the guards to get out and run more.
Defense
Jaylen Brown proved last year that in order to stay on the
court for Brad Stevens, you have to play defense. Many games, Brown would make
back to back plays on offense, maybe dunk over a dude and then hit a corner
three, only to get pulled the next dead ball because he let his man go backdoor
for an easy layup. Tatum may be able to come in and make a contribution on
offense, but he will not stay on the floor unless he plays at least passable
defense. Luckily for the Celtics, it looks like he has the tools to do that.
Tatum’s size should allow him to guard 3s and 4s, especially
since he will mainly be playing against opposing backups. He used this size in
college to rack up over a steal and block each per game. He definitely has the
instincts to play good defense in the NBA. However, he kind of reminds me of
Lonzo Ball defensively. They both have the size and ability to be good
defenders, but they both need to work on their technique to keep ball-handlers
in front of them and to rotate effectively.
Bigger power forwards with strong post games will definitely
give him trouble out of the gate. He is long enough to guard the position, but
at only 210 pounds, he is susceptible to getting bullied. Fortunately, the
Celtics are one the best teams in the league at playing team defense (they have
to overcome Isaiah Thomas’ defense). Look for Tatum to have help available when
he needs it.
Playing with the bench means he will probably see most of
his minutes with Marcus Smart, Terry Rozier, and Jaylen Brown (if they are all still
on the team). All three of these are very disruptive defenders that should
overcome any shortcomings on Tatum’s part.
Fit Concerns
There seems to be a theme in the top-3 of this draft class.
No one is good at defense. Tatum is probably the best suited to fit in despite
that, thanks to all the plus defenders the Celtics already have. Still, look
for him to have trouble getting consistent minutes if his defense struggles in
the early part of the season.
Offensively, Tatum is sometimes a willing passer. It’s almost
as if he decides which possessions he’s going to shoot on and which ones he
will pass the ball ahead of time. If he has ball-stopping tendencies that aren’t
by design or occur late in the shot clock, the Celtics offense will struggle.
The bread and butter of this team is moving the ball and passing up good shots
to get great shots. I’ve seen nothing to suggest that Tatum will play selfish basketball
as a rookie, but he needs to buy into the system and trust that he will still
be able to get his points while working inside of it.
From day one, Tatum will probably have a small role off the
bench (barring any huge acquisitions). He won’t be depended on to score, but that
will be what he is on the court to do. If he plays well and proves to be not a
liability on defense, look for his minutes to increase steadily throughout the
year. If the Celtics add one or both of Gordon Hayward or Paul George, he
probably will not have much of a role at all, depending on how the roster
shakes out after that. Unfortunately for him, he plays the same position as
both of those guys and he would also be competing with Jaylen Brown for minutes
on the wing. This is not an ideal fit, position wise (I think the Celtics would
have loved someone who is bigger and plays the 4 and 5) but Tatum will most
likely carve out a role for himself and the Celtics will make it work.
Conclusion
Tatum has the potential to fill a need for the Celtics with
his scoring ability. He will need to earn his minutes by doing the little things
like rebounding and defending. If he buys into team basketball and Stevens’ system,
he should be able to contribute from the get-go. He could be seeing limited minutes
due to the vast number of wings that could potentially be on the Celtics
roster.
Fit Grade
(Fit Grades are on a scale from "This Cat" to "This Hedgehog"
