We’re counting down the days until the NBA Draft (14!) and rumors are flying everywhere. Apparently, Jamal Murray is in contention for the number 1 pick, Marquesse Chriss could go 3rd, and Malachai Richardson is going to go top ten. I don’t think any of these things are going to happen. Here’s how I think it’ll actually go down.
1. Philadelphia 76ers- Ben Simmons: F, LSU
Simmons is the best player in this draft and he has the potential to be a superstar. He can do almost everything on the basketball court, score, rebound, pass, dribble, defend you name it. The 76ers are still at the point in their rebuild where they should be drafting best player available and not for fit, although Simmons does fit well as he can come in and be the primary ball handler. The one thing that Philly really needs that Simmons does not bring to the table is shooting. Simmons has almost no range outside of 5 feet. But that can be improved. If Simmons is the pick, watch out for a trade involving one of Jahlil Okafor or Nerlens Noel. If you want to see why I, and most other experts, am picking Simmons over Brandon Ingram, you can see my detailed analysis here.
NBA Comparison: Lamar Odom
2. Los Angeles Lakers- Brandon Ingram: F, Duke
Ingram garnered some hype this year and he could challenge Simmons for the top pick. Ingram has the potential to be a prolific scorer in the NBA, many people have compared him to Kevin Durant. Ingram will probably never be that good, but the star potential is there. He would be a great fit on a Laker team that needs scoring and shooting. He also would help round out a great young core consisting of Deangelo Russell, Jordan Clarkson, and Julius Randle.
NBA Comparison: Tayshaun Prince
3. Boston Celtics- Jamal Murray: G, Kentucky
Murray brings shooting and potential as a playmaker that the Celtics definitely need. Perhaps their biggest weakness this year was their offense when Isaiah Thomas was off the floor. The Celtics do have a lot of guards, but Murray brings a different skillset that they definitely need. You can see my argument for Murray being a top 5 pick here.
NBA Comparison: Bradley Beal
4. Phoenix Suns- Dragan Bender: F, Maccabi Tel Aviv (Israel)
The Suns will be ecstatic if the Celtics pass on Bender at 3. The Suns are truly lacking a power forward and Bender would complement their current roster nicely. Him along with Devin Booker would space the floor giving Alex Len room to operate down low and for Eric Bledsoe and T.J. Warren to penetrate. Bender also brings great passing and playmaking skills for someone his size, which any team could use. You can check out my more detailed profile of Bender here.
NBA Comparison: A tall Draymond Green
5. Minnesota Timberwolves- Buddy Hield: G, Kentucky
The Timberwolves have one of the most promising young cores in the league. With the last two number one picks on their roster, Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns, they seem to be sitting pretty for the future with new coach Tom Thibodeau. Hield would fit in the back court nicely, as he could play next to both Ricky Rubio and Zach Lavine. Hield brings outside shooting that the Timberwolves sorely need and some scoring punch off the bench.
NBA Comparison: C.J. McCollum
6. New Orleans Pelicans- Kris Dun
The Pelicans have been struggling to build a competitive team around Anthony Davis. They made the playoffs last season, and probably would have competed for the 8th seed again this year if it wasn’t for all their injuries. Kris Dunn fits in their win-soon timeframe as he can come in and immediately contribute. Dunn brings ball-handling and defense to a team that could use both and he also has nice upside to into a solid starting point guard.
NBA Comparison: Jeff Teague
7. Denver Nuggets- Marquesse Chriss: F, Washington
Chriss is a tantalizing prospect due to his athletic ability and potential as a stretch four. He is super raw and will need some time before he develops into even a quality backup, but his upside is enormous. He’ll need to work on his rebounding, basketball IQ, and fouling, but the Nuggets have plenty of time to let him develop.
NBA Comparison: The power forward version of Gerald Green
8. Sacramento Kings- Jaylen Brown: F, California
The Kings would have loved Dunn or Chriss to fall to them at number 8, but Brown is probably the best player left on the board, and would fit well with both Demarcus Cousins and Willie Caulie-Stein. He is a phenomenal athlete but a very raw player overall. He'll need some work, but he could turn into a very good player down the road.
NBA Comparison: Aaron Gordon
9. Toronto Raptors- Henry Ellenson: F, Marquette
The Raptors really need a power forward and will be hoping for one of Ellenson, Chriss, or Brown to fall to them at 9. I believe one of them definitely will and Ellenson would be a great fit. He can rebound, shoot, and even create his own shot a bit.
NBA Comparison: Jared Sullinger
10. Milwaukee Bucks- Jakob Poeltl: C, Utah
With the Greg Monroe experiment proving to be a bust, I would not be surprised to see the Bucks draft a center and try to move Monroe during the offseason. Poeltl has shown that he can rebound, score, and protect the rim and he has excellent size for the center position.
NBA Comparison: Andrew Bogut
11. Orlando Magic- Skal Labissiere: F/C, Kentucky
The Magic need a rim protector. They’re current frontcourt of Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon is undersized and lacks a shot blocking presence. Labissiere as the potential to be one of the best shot blockers in the league. He also showed the potential to stretch the floor with a silky smooth jump shot. He could play alongside both Vucevic and Gordon.
NBA Comparison: John Henson with a jumpshot
12. Utah Jazz- Wade Baldwin: G, Notre Dame
If this season proved anything to the Jazz, it’s that they need another point guard on the roster. When Dante Exum went down, they were left without a truly competent point guard for most of the year. Baldwin is athletic and dynamic and could come in and be a back-up to Exum and possibly challenge him for minutes.
NBA Comparison: Eric Bledsoe
13. Phoenix Suns- Furkan Korkmaz
With their second lottery pick, the Suns could look for a player that they could stash overseas for a year or two. Korkmaz shows a promising jump shot and is good defender which could make him invaluable when he comes over to the states.
NBA Comparison: Danny Green
14. Chicago Bulls- Deyonta Davis: F/C, Michigan State
With Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol set to be a free agents, the Bulls will need some front court help. Davis has a great mix of size and athleticism that makes him a promising rebounder and shot blocker.
NBA Comparison: Steven Adams
15. Denver Nuggets- Denzel Valentine: G/F, Michigan State
Valentine can do it all, shoot, pass, dribble, but he definitely needs to work on his defense. He’d be a good compliment to Emmanuel Mudiay, as he could take some of the pressure of ball handling and playmaking off of him.
NBA Comparison: Nicolas Batum
16. Boston Celtics- Timothe Luwawu: G/F, Mega Leks
The Celtics have 8 picks in this draft and an already full roster, so some, if not most of the picks, will be draft-and-stash players. Luwawu is perfect as he is young, has potential, and seems willing to stay overseas for a year or two.
NBA Comparison: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
17. Memphis Grizzlies- Domantas Saboins: F/C, Gonzaga
Sabonis would be a good fit with the Grizzlies, as he is a big who loves to scrap and fight inside for points and rebounds. He has a developing outside shot as well, so he would fit nicely next to Marc Gasol or Zach Randolph.
NBA Comparison: Julius Randle
18. Detroit Pistons- Demetrius Jackson
The Pistons really need a backup point guard, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jackson or Tyler Ulis here. Jackson brings scoring and athleticism that could really help the Pistons bench.
NBA Comparison: Patrick Beverley
19. Denver Nuggets- Ivica Zubac: C, Mega Leks
The Nuggets are on their third pick of the first round, so I wouldn’t be surprised if this pick gets traded. However, if they do keep it, I’d look for them to take someone they could stash overseas for now. Zubac fits that and has potential to become a good interior scorer and rebounder.
NBA Comparison: Jusuf Nurkic
20. Indiana Pacers- Malachai Richardson: G/F Syracuse
Richardson could go higher based on his tournament play and workouts, but frankly, he wasn’t very good during the college season. He is old for a freshman and was a very inefficient scorer. He does bring some shot creation and playmaking abilities though.
NBA Comparison- Jeremy Lamb
21. Atlanta Hawks- Tyler Ulis: G, Kentucky
I am expecting the Hawks to trade Jeff Teague this offseason and hand the reigns over to Dennis Schroeder. If that happens, they will need a backup point guard and some playmaking off the bench. Ulis would be perfect for that role.
NBA Comparison: T.J. Ford
22. Charlotte Hornets- Malik Beasley: G, Florida State
The Hornets definitely need some shooting from the wings position, and Beasley can do that efficiently while providing some athleticism as well.
NBA Comparison: Arron Afflalo
23. Boston Celtics- Juan Hernangomez: F, Spain
This is the Celtics third pick in the first round and Hernangomez could be a stash prospect for them. He is a solid athlete who can hit the three, which is great for a big man in the modern NBA.
NBA Comparison: Kelly Olynyk
24. Philadelphia 76ers- Thon Maker: F/C, High School
The Sixers should be trying to shoot for a star here, and Maker has potential. He is a mobile big man with great length and athleticism. He is incredibly raw however and will take a few years to develop into a player that could even see an NBA court.
NBA Comparison: Terrence Jones
25. Los Angeles Clippers- Damian Jones: C, Vanderbilt
The Clippers turned Cole Aldrich into a serviceable big man last season, which in turn led to him opting out of his contract. If the Clips don’t want to pay him, look for them to take a big here. Jones has all the physical tools to be able to compete at the next level.
NBA Comparison: Bismack Biyombo
26. Philadelphia 76ers- Dejounte Murray
The Sixers could really use a point guard, so Murray makes sense here. He has great size for a point guard and could be deadly in transition.
NBA Comparison: Michael Carter-Williams.
27. Toronto Raptors- Brice Johnson: F, North Carolina
The Raptors could look to double down on power forwards and take their second in the first round. Johnson was a good player in college with great athleticism who could come in and be ready to play day one for the Raptors.
NBA Comparison: Kenneth Faried
28. Phoenix Suns- Zhou Qi: C, Xinjiang
With their fourth pick in the first round, Qi is a prime stash candidate. He has good length and promising athleticism.
NBA Comparison: John Henson
29. San Antonio Spurs- Taureen Prince: F, Baylor
Prince brings a good mix of shooting and defense that could be effective right away for the Spurs.
NBA Comparison: Marcus Morris
30. Golden State Warriors- Ante Zizic
Zizic might’ve hurt his draft stock a little by declaring he wants to come over immediately. There are a lot of teams at the end of the first round that will be looking for prospects to stash overseas. Zizic however is only 19 years and has great length and athleticism that could turn him into a legitimate NBA center in a few years.
NBA Comparison: Ed Davis
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