Final NBA Mock Draft

Minutes before the draft, some picks are getting clearer, while others are murkier than they ever have been. Here’s how I see it going down tonight.

1. Philadelphia 76ers- Ben Simmons: F, LSU

They’d be foolish to pass on the clear best player in the draft who also has the most superstar potential. The Sixers have also told Simmons that he is the pick, so this was an easy one to peg.

2. Los Angeles Lakers- Brandon Ingram: F, Duke

Another easy pick here, the Lakers have reportedly told Ingram that he is the pick, and he should be. A long scorer who has potential to be an elite scorer. He immediately makes the Lakers better and could be a great player for a long time.

3. Boston Celtics- Kris Dun: PG, Providence

I think Dunn will be the pick at 3, but I completely expect him to be traded. If not, look for the Celtics to look for Bender, Chriss, or Jaylen Brown.

4. Phoenix Suns- Marquese Chriss: F, Washington

Chriss has some crazy potential, perhaps the most out of anyone outside the top two, and the Suns have plenty of time to let him develop.

5. Minnesota Timberwolves- Buddy Hield: G, Kentucky

It sounds like the Timberwolves will be targeting Kris Dunn, but I don’t see him falling there. Hield should be second on their list as he’ll bring much needed shooting and scoring.

6. New Orleans Pelicans- Jamal Murray: G, Kentucky

New Orleans needs another playmaker and shooter to help Anthony Davis. Murray could be a great shooter and projects as a solid combo guard.

7. Denver Nuggets- Dragan Bender: F, Maccabi Tel Aviv (Israel)

Bender fits perfectly with the Nuggets timeframe and his versatility would be great on this Nuggets team.

8. Sacramento Kings- Jaylen Brown: F, California

There seems to be a clear top 8, so the Kings should take whoever falls, in this case they get Jaylen Brown who has star potential, but has a long way to go to get there.

9. Toronto Raptors- Skal Labissiere: F/C, Kentucky

It sounds like Skal has a top-ten promise. The Raptors would make a lot of sense for him. They need a power forward who can stretch the floor and protect the rim, which just so happen to be Labiessiere’s best skills

10. Milwaukee Bucks- Deyonta Davis: F/C, Michigan State

The Bucks seem to be building a team that resolves around athleticism, length, and being able to play multiple positions. Davis fits that profile perfectly.

11. Orlando Magic- Jakob Poeltl: C, Utah

The Magic could use some front court depth, and Poeltl is the best true center in the draft. This just makes sense.

12. Atlanta Hawks- Denzel Valentine: G/F, Michigan State

After trading away Jeff Teague to get this pick, I think the Hawks will look for a player that could help them now. Valentine definitely would fit that description.

13. Phoenix Suns- Henry Ellenson: F, Marquette

The Suns are going to be looking to fill their power forward of the future position in this draft, so why not take two shots at it? Ellenson projects as a prototypical stretch four and would be extremely beneficial for the Suns.

14. Chicago Bulls- Wade Baldwin: G, Notre Dame

After trading Derrick Rose, the Bulls need a point guard. Baldwin is athletic, strong, and would fill that hole nicely.

15. Denver Nuggets- Furkan Korkmaz G, International

Korkmaz gives the Nuggets a chance to stash him internationally for a year or two and eventually come over and make an impact at the wing position.

16. Boston Celtics- Timothe Luwawu: G/F, Mega Leks

The Celtics have 8 picks in this draft and an already full roster, so some, if not most of the picks, will be draft-and-stash players. Luwawu is perfect as he is young, has potential, and seems willing to stay overseas for a year or two.

17. Memphis Grizzlies- Domantas Saboins: F/C, Gonzaga

Sabonis could go as high as 9, but he also has potential to fall. He would inject some youth into the Grizzlies, but also fit in with their style of basketball.

18. Detroit Pistons- Dejounte Murray: PG, Washington

The Pistons really need a backup point guard, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Murray or Demetrius Jackson here. Murray brings scoring and athleticism that could really help the Pistons bench.

19. Denver Nuggets- Ivica Zubac: C, Mega Leks

The Nuggets are on their third pick of the first round, so I wouldn’t be surprised if this pick gets traded. However, if they do keep it, I’d look for them to take someone they could stash overseas for now. Zubac fits that and has potential to become a good interior scorer and rebounder.

20. Brooklyn Nets- Malachai Richardson: G/F Syracuse

The Nets traded Thad Young for this pick, and should be looking for someone with potential. Richardson could go higher based on his tournament play and workouts, but frankly, he wasn’t very good during the college season. He is old for a freshman and was a very inefficient scorer. He does bring some shot creation and playmaking abilities though.

21. Atlanta Hawks- Malik Beasley: G, Florida State

The Hawks seem to be considering Beasley at 12, but he should fall to 21. I wouldn’t expect them to pass on him twice though.

22. Sacramento Kings- Taureen Prince: F, Baylor

The Kings just traded Marco Belinelli Prince brings a good mix of shooting and defense that could be effective right away for the Kings.

23. Boston Celtics- Juan Hernangomez: F, Spain

This is the Celtics third pick in the first round and Hernangomez could be a stash prospect for them. He is a solid athlete who can hit the three, which is great for a big man in the modern NBA.

24. Philadelphia 76ers- Thon Maker: F/C, High School

The Sixers should be trying to shoot for a star here, and Maker has potential. He is a mobile big man with great length and athleticism. He is incredibly raw however and will take a few years to develop into a player that could even see an NBA court.

25. Los Angeles Clippers- Damian Jones: C, Vanderbilt

The Clippers turned Cole Aldrich into a serviceable big man last season, which in turn led to him opting out of his contract. If the Clips don’t want to pay him, look for them to take a big here. Jones has all the physical tools to be able to compete at the next level.

26. Philadelphia 76ers- Demetrius Jackson: PG, Notre Dame

The Sixers could really use a point guard, so Jackson makes sense here. He is gritty point guard who shows potential from beyond the three point line.

27. Toronto Raptors- Brice Johnson: F, North Carolina

The Raptors could look to double down on power forwards and take their second in the first round. Johnson was a good player in college with great athleticism who could come in and be ready to play day one for the Raptors.

28. Phoenix Suns- Zhou Qi: C, Xinjiang

With their third pick in the first round, Qi is a prime stash candidate. He has good length and promising athleticism.

29. San Antonio Spurs- Ante Zizic: C, International

The Spurs love their international players, and Zizic could be a good one. And of course, since the Spurs will be taking him, he’s practically guaranteed to be a superstar.

30. Golden State Warriors- DeAndre Bembry: SF, St. Joseph’s

Bembry brings shooting that the Warriors clearly, desperately need. He could come in and give the Warriors a couple productive minutes a night if asked.

NBA Draft: Dragan Bender vs. Marquese Chriss- Tale of the Tape

Traditional big, low post, bruising power forwards are going the way of the dinosaurs in the modern NBA. Teams are no longer looking for their power forward to be a slightly smaller version of their center. They want players at the four who can shoot the three, pass the ball, run the court, and either play perimeter defense or protect the rim (or both). This is what makes prospects like Dragan Bender and Marquese Chriss so appealing. They are both versatile big men who can do a little bit of everything. Both show promising 3-point shots, both are long and can run the floor, and they can both can guard multiple positions. Bender has been pegged as a top 5 pick since December, while Chriss’ rise to the top has been a bit more sudden. This rise has reached a tremendous height too, he is in clear contention for the third overall pick and Chad Ford has gotten to wondering if he could unseat Brandon Ingram for the second pick (ESPN Insider Article Warning). Even questioning that Chriss could go top-2 seems a little absurd to me. This is probably just an “I’ll scratch your back, you scratch mine” situation going on with Ford and Chriss’ agent, but the hype for Chriss is real. After Simmons and Ingram are off the board, teams are going to have tough decisions to make. Especially if they’re deciding between these two power forwards. You’ll see why by the end of this piece.

One of the most important aspects that Chriss and Bender have going for them are their physical measurements. Both have great size for the power forward position, here’s how they measured:

Chriss	Measurement	Bender
6’10”	Height	7’ .5”
233	Weight	216
7’ .25”	Wingspan	7’2”
8’ 9”	Standing Reach	9’3”
38.5”	Max Vertical	27.5

Both of these players have measurements that leap out at you. Marquese Chriss might have the perfect body to play power forward in the NBA with his combination of height, strength and quickness. Combine that with his outstanding athleticism (evidenced by the 38.5” vertical) and you can see why scouts are drooling over his potential. Now, vertical leaping isn’t the only measurement for athleticism, but a max vertical that is three inches higher than Blake Griffin’s when he was at the combine is mighty impressive.

Dragan Bender’s biggest strength might just be his size. At a legitimate 7 feet tall at only 18 years of age, he will be one of the tallest players in the league, and he doesn’t even project as a center. He is rather thin at only 216 pounds and I’m sure that one of his priorities for his first year in the league will be adding weight. Bender’s height is coupled with his great wingspan that should help him contest shots and disrupt passing lanes.

Beyond the measurements, the stats for the most recent season for both Chriss and Bender could help differentiate the two and help us decide who will be the better player:

Chriss	Statistic	Bender
24.9	MPG	13.5
13.8	PPG	5.4
5.4	RPG	2.7
.8	APG	.8
1.6	BPG	.9
.9	SPG	.6
53.1%	FG%	57%
35%	3PT%	40%
68.5%	FT%	73%
2.0	TO	.6

Both played limited minutes compared to the other top prospects in this year and that is one of the factors that makes scouting these two players more difficult. Chriss has only been playing organized basketball for a few years so he is still a very raw player. Bender’s lack of playing time is a little more political. Firstly, young players oftentimes do not get lots of minutes in the European leagues. More often than not, you’ll have older players getting minutes over younger, more skilled players. Secondly, it has been known that Bender would be entering the draft and coming over to the NBA for some time now, so that gave his coach very little incentive to try and develop him by giving him heavy minutes. It was not a case of Bender not being good enough to play against European competition. In fact, when he played he was very good. If you adjust his stats to 36 minutes, it comes to a stat line of 14.4 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 2.1 assists. Add to that his efficient shooting, and that’s pretty darn good for someone who doesn’t turn 19 until November. Chriss was also efficient in his scoring and he showed his ability as a shot blocker too. However, the statistics don’t tell the true story for either of these prospects. Let’s break them down:

Scoring

Neither of these two prospects should be expected to be the main scorer on a championship team at any point in their careers. That’s just not realistic, as scoring is only one part of both of their highly versatile games. With that said, both Bender and Chriss should have no problem getting the ball in the bucket when they need to. Bender displays a wide range of abilities when it comes to scoring. He has a promising three point shooting stroke, can attack the hoop well for someone his size, and could be a weapon in transition. His shooting mechanics have shown great improvement over the course of just a year. His shot is smoother, quicker, and more consistent and it shows in his shooting percentages. Check it out for yourself:

Bender loves to run the floor and this could be where a majority of his point come from. His long strides allow him to get out in front of defenses and his long arms are great for catching passes over the top. You could be seeing a lot of plays like this next year:

Chriss’ offensive game is currently a work in progress. He’s shown a lot of potential and he should be able to become a good scorer at the next level. His jump shot is smooth and he has great range for a power forward. He can shoot spot up jumpers and even displayed decent shooting off the dribble. His mechanics can still use a little work, but that’s expected for someone one who has only been playing for as long as Chriss has. NBA teams should love the fact that he is already as good as he is at shooting. Here’s his jumper, pretty nice right?

Chriss should be able to bring versatility to his scoring in the NBA. He can attack the hoop better than your average power forward which could cause matchup problems. He is also very quick and should be great in fast-breaks. His post-game is also developing nicely and could become a good tool for him in the NBA. His go to moves are turnarounds and baby hooks, but with his length, he should be able to get those shots off over most defenders. He needs to be a little more aggressive at times and not shy away from defenders. If he improves that, he could be a very well rounded scorer that could do it all when he has the ball in his hands.

Playmaking

Bender’s passing ability is what sets him apart from other big men in this draft. He has excellent court vision and seems to be able to get the ball right where it needs to go. He excels at outlet passes, high post passes, and even seems adept at hitting the roll man in pick and rolls. Passing big men are becoming more and more valuable as the NBA moves towards offenses that emphasize ball movement and shooting. Here you can see Bender’s court vision on display, he sees the seam in the defense and knows that his teammate will be cutting through the paint:

Bender is also a decent ball handler for someone his size and could potentially be a secondary ball handler in a few years. His ability to both pass and dribble could make him one of the best distributing power forwards in the league when it’s all said and done.

Chriss’ passing needs some serious work. Some of his deficiencies can be blamed on his lack of experience, but right now, his court vision is bad and he can definitely be a ball stopper on offense. If he is to play on the perimeter in the NBA, he’ll need to make some serious improvements when it comes to his passing. Chriss has shown some promise when it comes to ball handling and playmaking, but I do not believe this will ever develop into anything more than just taking his own defender off the dribble. 

This is probably the extent of his playmaking, which is by no means bad, it’s just not as much of a strength as Bender’s passing ability is.

Rebounding

Both Bender and Chriss have serious concerns when it comes to rebounding. Both have excellent height, Chriss has an insane vertical leap, and Bender has a great wingspan. Both prospects should be at least average rebounders for their positions. Much of these struggles are a result of physicality. Bender is not very heavy and seems to lack some of the lower body strength that would enable himself to plant in the paint and not get pushed out of position. Bender is willing to go inside and be physical in order to get rebounds, but his frame is just not at a point right now where he can fight and brawl for rebounds inside. Thankfully, he is only 18 years old and has plenty of time to bulk up and become stronger. This should help Bender put all of his other tools together and become at least an average rebounder. Here, you can clearly see how Bender’s lack of strength hurts him on the glass:

This could happen fairly often in the NBA where almost everyone is big and strong.

Chriss’ lack of rebounding seems to stem more from an unwillingness to do the physical work that is necessary to get rebounds inside. He hardly ever boxes out and he tries to rely on his leaping ability too often. He also needs to add muscle to his frame, but he also needs to be willing to fight for position and rebounds. Here, you can see how he doesn’t find his man to box out and instead just sits under the hoop and watches:

As Chriss gains experience muscle, he should be able to improve his rebounding. His instincts should improve which hopefully will lead to him boxing out more and seeing how shots are going to come off the rim.

Defense

Both prospects have the tools to be great defenders. Bender has length, height, and quick feet. Chriss has height, athleticism and quickness. Yet, both can be lacking on the defensive end at times. The cause of these problems are very similar to their rebounding problems. Bender lacks the necessary strength to guard the low post without getting bullied. Chriss can get caught watching seems to lack the defensive instincts to pair with his athleticism. However, both do have promising parts to their defense.

Bender has shown to be a potentially elite perimeter defender for someone his size. He combines quick feet with good positioning and elite length and that makes for a shutdown defender. He has the potential to guard 3-5 in the NBA thanks to his quickness and size. His long wingspan allowed him to block 5.7% of opponent’s shots during his time on the court in Israel. He also seems to have a very high basketball IQ and a tremendous motor on the defensive end. He does not fit your stereotypical “soft European big guy” role. He shuts down passing lanes, does not allow penetration, and overall plays with toughness. Here, you can see how well he stays in front of his man and keeps his hands up and active which leads to him getting the steal:

If Bender can bulk up and be strong enough to hang with centers in the NBA, he could be the best defensive player in this draft. However, for now, he should not be asked to guard centers or bigger power forwards that would take him into the low post. He should be able to stay with most threes in the NBA, especially those in second units where he’ll be getting most of his minutes, and stretch fours which are becoming more and more prevalent every year.

Chriss’ defensive struggles seem to be more due to lack of knowledge than anything physical. He seems to lack the fundamentals, positioning, and discipline to turn his physical tools into defensive production. He is quick enough to stay in front of anyone who plays in the front court, and his vertical lends itself to his excellent shot blocking number. But until he can nail down the nuances of defense, he will be a below average defender. Here, you can see how he doesn’t get low and use his quickness to stay in front of his man. Instead, he stands up which allows his man to go right by him to the hoop:

Thankfully, Chriss is only 18 years old and has plenty of time to work on his defense and his knowledge of the game. If he can improve that, he will be a very good defender due to his shot blocking capability and his quickness on the perimeter.

Both Bender and Chriss have a fouling problem that could be detrimental to their teams. Bender averaged 7.4 fouls per 40 minutes this season, which is an insanely high number. He relies on his length too often which leads to him trying to swat shots instead of just contesting them. His lack of defensive rebounding also puts him in a position to pick up fouls very often. Chriss gets himself out of position on defense which leads to him reaching or leaping into players trying to block a shot, like on this possession:

One of the keys to becoming better defenders for both of these players will be cutting down on their fouling.

Overall

Both Marquese Chriss and Dragan Bender are young prospects with immense potential. Neither have the all-around game of Ben Simmons or the one elite skill like Brandon Ingram, and that is why they are not in contention for the top two picks. However, both show promise in many aspects of the game, on both ends of the floor. Bender could become a great perimeter defender while also bringing a combination of playmaking, shooting, and passing that is rare for someone his size. Chriss is going to be one of the best athletes in the NBA the minute he steps on the court. He also has a nice shooting stroke and has the potential to be an elite rim protector.

I would expect at least one of these players to go in the top 4 picks. I would not be surprised to see Boston and Phoenix pick them back to back in some order at the 3 and 4 spots. I think the lowest either of them falls will be to Sacramento at 8. If I had to choose, right now I would take Bender due to the uniqueness of his skills and his (comparatively) advanced knowledge of the game. I think both have the potential to become All-Stars at some point down the line. Fans should not be upset if their team picks either one of these young prospects, but they should also not expect them to make an immense immediate contribution. Both are fairly raw and will take a few years to develop into legitimate NBA players worthy of heavy minutes. If teams are patient with them though, they could have something special on their hands.

NBA Mock Draft Version 3.0

We’re counting down the days until the NBA Draft (14!) and rumors are flying everywhere. Apparently, Jamal Murray is in contention for the number 1 pick, Marquesse Chriss could go 3rd, and Malachai Richardson is going to go top ten. I don’t think any of these things are going to happen. Here’s how I think it’ll actually go down.



1. Philadelphia 76ers- Ben Simmons: F, LSU

Simmons is the best player in this draft and he has the potential to be a superstar. He can do almost everything on the basketball court, score, rebound, pass, dribble, defend you name it. The 76ers are still at the point in their rebuild where they should be drafting best player available and not for fit, although Simmons does fit well as he can come in and be the primary ball handler. The one thing that Philly really needs that Simmons does not bring to the table is shooting. Simmons has almost no range outside of 5 feet. But that can be improved. If Simmons is the pick, watch out for a trade involving one of Jahlil Okafor or Nerlens Noel. If you want to see why I, and most other experts, am picking Simmons over Brandon Ingram, you can see my detailed analysis here.

NBA Comparison: Lamar Odom

2. Los Angeles Lakers- Brandon Ingram: F, Duke

Ingram garnered some hype this year and he could challenge Simmons for the top pick. Ingram has the potential to be a prolific scorer in the NBA, many people have compared him to Kevin Durant. Ingram will probably never be that good, but the star potential is there. He would be a great fit on a Laker team that needs scoring and shooting. He also would help round out a great young core consisting of Deangelo Russell, Jordan Clarkson, and Julius Randle.

NBA Comparison: Tayshaun Prince

3. Boston Celtics- Jamal Murray: G, Kentucky

Murray brings shooting and potential as a playmaker that the Celtics definitely need. Perhaps their biggest weakness this year was their offense when Isaiah Thomas was off the floor. The Celtics do have a lot of guards, but Murray brings a different skillset that they definitely need. You can see my argument for Murray being a top 5 pick here.

NBA Comparison: Bradley Beal

4. Phoenix Suns- Dragan Bender: F, Maccabi Tel Aviv (Israel)

The Suns will be ecstatic if the Celtics pass on Bender at 3. The Suns are truly lacking a power forward and Bender would complement their current roster nicely. Him along with Devin Booker would space the floor giving Alex Len room to operate down low and for Eric Bledsoe and T.J. Warren to penetrate. Bender also brings great passing and playmaking skills for someone his size, which any team could use. You can check out my more detailed profile of Bender here.

NBA Comparison: A tall Draymond Green

5. Minnesota Timberwolves- Buddy Hield: G, Kentucky

The Timberwolves have one of the most promising young cores in the league. With the last two number one picks on their roster, Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns, they seem to be sitting pretty for the future with new coach Tom Thibodeau. Hield would fit in the back court nicely, as he could play next to both Ricky Rubio and Zach Lavine. Hield brings outside shooting that the Timberwolves sorely need and some scoring punch off the bench.

NBA Comparison: C.J. McCollum

6. New Orleans Pelicans- Kris Dun

The Pelicans have been struggling to build a competitive team around Anthony Davis. They made the playoffs last season, and probably would have competed for the 8th seed again this year if it wasn’t for all their injuries. Kris Dunn fits in their win-soon timeframe as he can come in and immediately contribute. Dunn brings ball-handling and defense to a team that could use both and he also has nice upside to into a solid starting point guard.

NBA Comparison: Jeff Teague

7. Denver Nuggets- Marquesse Chriss: F, Washington

Chriss is a tantalizing prospect due to his athletic ability and potential as a stretch four. He is super raw and will need some time before he develops into even a quality backup, but his upside is enormous. He’ll need to work on his rebounding, basketball IQ, and fouling, but the Nuggets have plenty of time to let him develop.

NBA Comparison: The power forward version of Gerald Green

8. Sacramento Kings- Jaylen Brown: F, California

The Kings would have loved Dunn or Chriss to fall to them at number 8, but Brown is probably the best player left on the board, and would fit well with both Demarcus Cousins and Willie Caulie-Stein. He is a phenomenal athlete but a very raw player overall. He'll need some work, but he could turn into a very good player down the road.

NBA Comparison: Aaron Gordon

9. Toronto Raptors- Henry Ellenson: F, Marquette
The Raptors really need a power forward and will be hoping for one of Ellenson, Chriss, or Brown to fall to them at 9. I believe one of them definitely will and Ellenson would be a great fit. He can rebound, shoot, and even create his own shot a bit.

NBA Comparison: Jared Sullinger

10. Milwaukee Bucks- Jakob Poeltl: C, Utah

With the Greg Monroe experiment proving to be a bust, I would not be surprised to see the Bucks draft a center and try to move Monroe during the offseason. Poeltl has shown that he can rebound, score, and protect the rim and he has excellent size for the center position.

NBA Comparison: Andrew Bogut

11. Orlando Magic- Skal Labissiere: F/C, Kentucky

The Magic need a rim protector. They’re current frontcourt of Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon is undersized and lacks a shot blocking presence. Labissiere as the potential to be one of the best shot blockers in the league. He also showed the potential to stretch the floor with a silky smooth jump shot. He could play alongside both Vucevic and Gordon.

NBA Comparison: John Henson with a jumpshot

12. Utah Jazz- Wade Baldwin: G, Notre Dame

If this season proved anything to the Jazz, it’s that they need another point guard on the roster. When Dante Exum went down, they were left without a truly competent point guard for most of the year. Baldwin is athletic and dynamic and could come in and be a back-up to Exum and possibly challenge him for minutes.

NBA Comparison: Eric Bledsoe

13. Phoenix Suns- Furkan Korkmaz

With their second lottery pick, the Suns could look for a player that they could stash overseas for a year or two. Korkmaz shows a promising jump shot and is good defender which could make him invaluable when he comes over to the states.

NBA Comparison: Danny Green

14. Chicago Bulls- Deyonta Davis: F/C, Michigan State

With Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol set to be a free agents, the Bulls will need some front court help. Davis has a great mix of size and athleticism that makes him a promising rebounder and shot blocker.

NBA Comparison: Steven Adams

15. Denver Nuggets- Denzel Valentine: G/F, Michigan State

Valentine can do it all, shoot, pass, dribble, but he definitely needs to work on his defense. He’d be a good compliment to Emmanuel Mudiay, as he could take some of the pressure of ball handling and playmaking off of him.

NBA Comparison: Nicolas Batum



16. Boston Celtics- Timothe Luwawu: G/F, Mega Leks

The Celtics have 8 picks in this draft and an already full roster, so some, if not most of the picks, will be draft-and-stash players. Luwawu is perfect as he is young, has potential, and seems willing to stay overseas for a year or two.

NBA Comparison: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope



17. Memphis Grizzlies- Domantas Saboins: F/C, Gonzaga

Sabonis would be a good fit with the Grizzlies, as he is a big who loves to scrap and fight inside for points and rebounds. He has a developing outside shot as well, so he would fit nicely next to Marc Gasol or Zach Randolph.

NBA Comparison: Julius Randle



18. Detroit Pistons- Demetrius Jackson

The Pistons really need a backup point guard, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jackson or Tyler Ulis here. Jackson brings scoring and athleticism that could really help the Pistons bench.

NBA Comparison: Patrick Beverley



19. Denver Nuggets- Ivica Zubac: C, Mega Leks

The Nuggets are on their third pick of the first round, so I wouldn’t be surprised if this pick gets traded. However, if they do keep it, I’d look for them to take someone they could stash overseas for now. Zubac fits that and has potential to become a good interior scorer and rebounder.

NBA Comparison: Jusuf Nurkic



20. Indiana Pacers- Malachai Richardson: G/F Syracuse

Richardson could go higher based on his tournament play and workouts, but frankly, he wasn’t very good during the college season. He is old for a freshman and was a very inefficient scorer. He does bring some shot creation and playmaking abilities though.

NBA Comparison- Jeremy Lamb



21. Atlanta Hawks- Tyler Ulis: G, Kentucky

I am expecting the Hawks to trade Jeff Teague this offseason and hand the reigns over to Dennis Schroeder. If that happens, they will need a backup point guard and some playmaking off the bench. Ulis would be perfect for that role.

NBA Comparison: T.J. Ford



22. Charlotte Hornets- Malik Beasley: G, Florida State

The Hornets definitely need some shooting from the wings position, and Beasley can do that efficiently while providing some athleticism as well.

NBA Comparison: Arron Afflalo



23. Boston Celtics- Juan Hernangomez: F, Spain

This is the Celtics third pick in the first round and Hernangomez could be a stash prospect for them. He is a solid athlete who can hit the three, which is great for a big man in the modern NBA.

NBA Comparison: Kelly Olynyk



24. Philadelphia 76ers- Thon Maker: F/C, High School

The Sixers should be trying to shoot for a star here, and Maker has potential. He is a mobile big man with great length and athleticism. He is incredibly raw however and will take a few years to develop into a player that could even see an NBA court.

NBA Comparison: Terrence Jones



25. Los Angeles Clippers- Damian Jones: C, Vanderbilt

The Clippers turned Cole Aldrich into a serviceable big man last season, which in turn led to him opting out of his contract. If the Clips don’t want to pay him, look for them to take a big here. Jones has all the physical tools to be able to compete at the next level.

NBA Comparison: Bismack Biyombo



26. Philadelphia 76ers- Dejounte Murray

The Sixers could really use a point guard, so Murray makes sense here. He has great size for a point guard and could be deadly in transition.

NBA Comparison: Michael Carter-Williams.



27. Toronto Raptors- Brice Johnson: F, North Carolina

The Raptors could look to double down on power forwards and take their second in the first round. Johnson was a good player in college with great athleticism who could come in and be ready to play day one for the Raptors.

NBA Comparison: Kenneth Faried



28. Phoenix Suns- Zhou Qi: C, Xinjiang

With their fourth pick in the first round, Qi is a prime stash candidate. He has good length and promising athleticism.

NBA Comparison: John Henson



29. San Antonio Spurs- Taureen Prince: F, Baylor

Prince brings a good mix of shooting and defense that could be effective right away for the Spurs.

NBA Comparison: Marcus Morris



30. Golden State Warriors- Ante Zizic

Zizic might’ve hurt his draft stock a little by declaring he wants to come over immediately. There are a lot of teams at the end of the first round that will be looking for prospects to stash overseas. Zizic however is only 19 years and has great length and athleticism that could turn him into a legitimate NBA center in a few years.

NBA Comparison: Ed Davis



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NBA Draft: Ben Simmons vs. Brandon Ingram- Tale of the Tape

In what is being deemed a “two-man” draft, Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram are the far and away the top two prospects in the 2016 NBA draft. Both had prolific years as college freshman, Ingram enjoying a tournament run with perennial powerhouse Duke while Simmons put LSU on his back and tried to make them a respectable team. However, their success in college is not the main reason these two are going to be the top two picks in the draft. The reason for that is due to both of their potential to become superstars in the NBA. Ben Simmons brings a unique blend of ball handling, rebounding, playmaking, and scoring that is rare for a player his size. Brandon Ingram has shown the potential to be a top tier shooter and shot creator at the professional level. But which one should go number one?

First, let’s look at the measurements:

Simmons	Measurement	Ingram
Small Forward/Power Forward	Position	Small Forward
6’ 9”	Height	6’ 8”
240	Weight	196
7’ .25”	Wingspan	7’ 3”
9’ 0.5”	Standing Reach	9’ 1.5”

Both of these players have outstanding physical measurements. Simmons has the edge in height and weight, but Ingram’s height is still great for his position. Weighing in at only 196 pounds is a concern for Ingram however. The biggest knock on Ingram has been that he is too thin, and he will have to put on some serious weight in order to hang with the bigger small forwards in the league. Going small with Ingram at the four would probably not be an option for most teams until he gains some serious weight. Simmons is big enough and strong enough to come in and play the four day one if that’s what’s asked of him. Ingram’s length is fantastic. With the 7’ 3” wingspan, Ingram has the potential to be a nightmare on defense. Long arms are great for disrupting passing lanes and blocking shots. Ingram showed the value of those arms in college, averaging 1.1 steals and 1.4 blocks per game. This bodes well for his defensive potential in the NBA, as steals are normally a good indicator for defensive ability. I could see him averaging 1 steal and 1 block in the NBA, which is great for a small forward.

Both Ingram and Simmons were incredibly productive in college, especially for freshmen. Let’s take a look at the stats:

Simmons	Stat	Ingram
34.9	MPG	34.6
19.2	PPG	17.3
11.9	RPG	6.8
4.8	APG	2.0
2.0	Steals	1.1
.8	Blocks	1.4
56%	FG%	44.2%
67%	FT%	68.2%
33.3%	3PT%	41%
3.1	TOs	2.0

Simmons was asked to carry a much larger load of LSU’s offense, which is reflected in his stats. Simmons’ strength as a playmaker is also evident with his 4.8 assists. The biggest thing that pops out at you when looking at Ingram’s stats is his three point percentage. 41% from three would make him one of the best shooters in the league. Whoever ends up drafting him will be hoping that translates so that he can provide floor spacing and scoring immediately.

Scoring

Both of these players will be drafted with the expectation that they will help their team get buckets. And they both should get plenty of their own. However, they will be scoring in very different ways. Ben Simmons is at his best in the fast break. He is long, quick, and he can lead a fast break or just run the court. Is ability to score in transition can be seen here:

Simmons will be best on a team that is looking to get out and run so he can use his athleticism to get ahead of the defense and either score or distribute to his teammates. He does have a propensity to finish with his right hand when he should be using his left. This is something to keep an eye on as NBA defenders will be able to exploit that. He is a little more limited in the half-court, due to his deficiency as an outside shooter. However he is still able to take defenders off the dribble and finish at the rim with either hand. He draws a lot of fouls, averaging 9 FTAs per game. However, he only scored at a 55% rate inside the paint during half-court sets which is good, but not great. A major key for Simmons to find success in the NBA will be finding ways to be effective in the half court. He is not going to be able to rely solely on his ability in transition to score like he did in college. He’ll need to develop at least a mid range game and become more effective at taking defenders off the dribble.

Simmons has very little range and most of his points come from inside the paint. He does have a nice little variety of post moves that he uses to bully smaller defenders. His jump-shot mechanics look smooth and do show potential, but I’m going to wait and see how that translates to pro games before I call him a potential shooter. Here he is trading jumpers with Dejounte Murray:

Brandon Ingram proved to be an efficient scorer from three and when he was creating his own shot. 41% from three is a great number that really proves that his stroke is something a team can rely on. Ingram also showed that he is more than capable as a scorer in isolation, scoring almost 1 point per possession when he goes into isolation. This could be a great positive for him, as both teams in the top two need a go to scorer, someone who can you give the ball to and tell them to go get a bucket. Ingram put up his impressive offensive stats while being the primary playmaker on 44% of his possessions. He has the ability to create shots off the dribble, but he needs to work on his efficiency on those shots. His elite length allows him to be very effective in transition, but he also needs to improve his finishing ability. This will probably come as he adds muscle and weight to his frame.

Ingram’s jump-shot is silky smooth and that his probably his biggest selling point to teams. Check it out:

Both Simmons and Ingram should be able to carry their scoring from college over to the pros, especially if they land on the 76ers and the Lakers as they will both be asked to carry a significant load of the offense.

Passing

This part of Ben Simmons’ game could be what makes him a superstar at the next level. His ability to create shots for his teammates with his passing is what has lead to LeBron and Magic Johnson comparisons. Averaging almost 5 assists a game from a forward position (on an LSU team that wasn’t filled to the brim with great scorer too) is incredibly impressive and is a testament to one of Simmons’ best skills.

Here you can see his excellent court vision and ability to get the ball in exactly the right spot for his teammate to go right up and score before the defense can recover. Simmons excels in passing in both the half-court and on fast-breaks. As a primary ball handler, a think any team could expect Simmons to replicate his 5 assists per game average from college. He is a willing passer that should have ample opportunities to distribute the ball. This is one the areas where he has a clear advantage over Ingram. He could be a once-in-a-generation point forward with his combination of ball handling and passing.

Brandon Ingram’s passing ability is as lauded over as Simmons’ is, however Ingram is a willing and proficient distributor. He only averaged 2 assists per game in college, however he was not asked to be the primary ball handler/playmaker like Ben Simmons was for LSU. He has good court vision and his height helps him see openings that other players could miss. While Simmons has the edge over him in the passing category, Ingram projects to be an above average passer from the small forward position.

Rebounding

Ben Simmons is one of the best rebounding prospects to enter the draft in a long time. Averaging almost 12 boards a game while playing Forward and not center is a testament to his instincts, athleticism, and length that allows him to be an elite rebounder. Rebounding is one of the most important parts of his game, as many times he will grab a defensive rebound and either go coast-to-coast or he’ll start a fast-break and find an open teammate for an easy layup. In fact, according to Synergy Sports, 26% of his offensive possessions came from getting a rebound and starting the break.

Simmons has a good mix of length and strength that he uses to get rebounds, like on this possession.

I do not expect Simmons’ rebounding number to be too close to his college numbers, mostly because he will be playing against bigger, stronger competition. And when you add in the fact that he probably be playing the three, there should be two other rebounders on the court at the same time as him. However, I’d expect around 6 rebounds a game which is still quite good for a forward in the NBA.

Brandon Ingram is no slouch when it comes to rebounding either. Averaging almost 7 boards a game is impressive for some of Ingram’s size and strength. He relies on his length a little too much to get rebounds, as opposed to being physical and boxing out like he does on this possession:

This will probably improve as he adds weight and gets stronger. Ingram also possesses very good instincts when it comes to seeing how the ball is going to come off the rim. His blend of elite length and quickness allowed him to get to rebounds quickly and grab them over many defenders. Ingram also has a great vertical as he is an explosive leaper. All of these combined to make him an above average rebounder which should translate to the NBA.

Simmons has another clear advantage in this category, but that is not a knock on Ingram. Simmons is just, to put it simply, really good at rebounding.

Defense

Both Ingram and Simmons seemed to not concern themselves with defense as much as they did with their offensive games. There are knocks on both of them for taking plays off and not putting in all the effort they could on that side of the court. This is a bigger problem for Simmons, as sometimes he looks clearly disinterested in playing defense. When he’s engaged, he can probably guard anyone on the court due to his great combination of athleticism, quickness, length, and strength. However, that was rare to see during his stint at LSU. If an NBA coach can get him to buy into a defensive scheme and work hard on both sides of the ball, he could be one of the best two-way players in the game. That will definitely take some work and a long time though.

Simmons displayed good instincts on the defensive end, evidenced by his phenomenal 2 steals a game. It is rare to see someone his size rack up that many steals. Here, he uses his long arms to work with a teammate in order to get a steal:

It is also a great thing for Simmons’ defensive potential in the NBA. One of the best indicators for defensive success translating from college to the NBA is steals. This is why you’ll often hear concerns over players that do not pick up enough steals. Steals show that a prospect has quick hands, good anticipation for where the ball is going, and a quick enough body to get to ball before anyone else. It will all be about effort for Simmons in the NBA. If he plays hard and is willing to work on defense he’ll be great. Otherwise he could turn into a liability.

Ingram relies on his length often to disrupt passing lanes and block shots. This is a great use of his massive wingspan and exactly what’d you want out of him. Where Ingram needs work is off-ball defense. He will occasionally fall asleep and lose his man on a simple backdoor court, something I like the to call “The James Harden.” Besides getting lost a few too many times, Ingram shows good instincts to block shots and get steals, something that I believe will translate to the league. Here, he anticipates the pass and uses his long, lanky arms to get in the passing lane:

He will also need to spend some time working on his defense before he will be considered a good pro defender, but he has the tools to be effective on both ends of the court.

So Who Should Go Number 1?

Both Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram are terrific prospects. They both project to be forces on the offensive end, with the potential to become good defenders as well. Both have some elite physical measurements that will help them succeed (Simmons’ 6’9” 240 lbs frame and Ingram’s 7’3” wingspan) but both also have some concerns (Ingram’s weight and Simmons’ lack of a jumper and attitude.). I believe that the uniqueness of what Ben Simmons brings to the table makes him the clear number one overall pick. The ability to create offense like a point guard, rebound like a power forward, and defend like an elite wing creates what will be one of the most unique players in the league.  The Sixers are in need of playmaking and scoring, which Simmons will most certainly provide. They will probably need to trade one of Nerlens Noel or Jahlil Okafor to ease the logjam in the frontcourt, but that was probably going to have to happen anyway. The 76ers should be thrilled to have the chance to draft Ben Simmons and should be prepared to build their team around him for the next decade or two. The Los Angeles Lakers have a terrific consolation prize in Brandon Ingram however. 

The two biggest concerns when it comes to Ben Simmons are his dismal shooting ability and the fact that he played like he just wasn’t interested at times. Whoever drafts him needs to get him to buy in and understand that you need to play hard for the whole game and on both ends of the court. If they can do that, they’ll have a superstar in the making.

Brandon Ingram is going to go to a situation where he can shine. He is most likely going to end up in Los Angeles, where he won’t have to be a primary ball handler or facilitator in his rookie year. He’ll be asked to provide floor spacing and shot creating, two of the things he’s best at.

Both the Sixers and the Lakers lucked out by winning the NBA lottery, and they will have two of the best prospects in the NBA for years to come.