With five games to play, the Celtics have all but locked up
a top-two seed in the Eastern Conference. This is no small achievement,
especially considering the Celtics are just three years into a massive rebuild.
While the they are still fighting for that number one seed, we have gotten to
the point where we can look ahead a little bit and wonder about playoff
matchups. The bottom 4 seeds in the East are completely wide open, and the
Celtics could realistically play anyone of the Hawks, Bulls, Heat, Pacers, and
maybe even the Hornets. The Bucks seem to have a grasp on the 5 or 6 seed and
the Celtics shouldn’t slip to the 3rd or 4th to play
them. So how should Celtic fans hope the end of the season plays out? Let’s
take a look.
Miami Heat
The Heat have stormed back after a dreadful first half of
the season to squeeze themselves into playoff contention. Two weeks ago, I was
not feeling great about this potential matchup. The Heat were on fire and
looked like they could potentially beat anyone in the conference. However,
since then Dion Waiters sprained his ankle and they have slowed down, going 5-5
in their last ten games. On paper, the Celtics match up well against the Heat.
Their leading scorers are Goran Dragic, Hassan Whiteside, and Dion Waiters, who
all play positions where the Celtics have great defenders. Marcus Smart, Avery
Bradley, and Al Horford should be able to minimize their effectiveness.
The Heat are an efficient team; they are in the top half of
the league in both three-point percentage and field goal percentage and they
don’t turn the ball over very much at all. They do not score much, averaging
102.8 points per game, good for only 21st in the league, but they
also have a top five defensive rating at 104.1 points given up per 100
possessions. The Celtics should be able to use this to their advantage. The
Celtic defense has vastly improved to the point they are now top-ten in the
league in opponents’ field goal percentage, allowing teams to shoot only 45.1%
from the floor and they are top-two in opponents’ three-point percentage, as
teams are shooting a mere 33.3% against the Celtics. They should be able to win
games in this series in a fast-paced, high-scoring game and in a defensive slug
fest.
With Hassan Whiteside manning the middle, the Heat are a
top-three team in the league at blocking opponents’ shots, which could spell
trouble for Isaiah Thomas, whose game is predicated on getting to the rim and
finishing over or around big guys. But, if there is anyone who can find ways to
score around a shot blocker, it’s IT. Despite Whiteside’s 14 rebounds per game,
the Heat are not a great rebounding team, which is great for the Celtics.
Despite their recent success rebounding, the C’s are still a bottom four
rebounding team on the season and I don’t expect that to change in the
playoffs. The Celtics are 4-0 this season against the Heat, but three of those
games came back in November and December when the Heat were still struggling.
Still, I would rate this is a good matchup for the Celtics, especially if Dion
Waiters continues to sit out with his ankle injury.
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers are currently right on the bubble of this playoff
race, as the 8th seed in the conference. This is another team the
Celtics are undefeated against this year, going 3-0 in their matchups with
Indiana. However, playoff Pacers are a different beast. We have seen Paul
George time and time again carry the Pacers to competitive series, last year
against the Raptors and the insane series against the Big Three Heat a few
years back come to mind. Still, the Pacers have just not been able to get it
together this year.
Statically, their offense works. They shoot 46.2% from the
field, 37.4% from three, and 80.9% from the line. Their defense is middle of
the pack, with a defensive rating of 106.5, good for 18th in the
league. There rebounding is awful, maybe as bad as the Celtics. The Pacers get 75%
of available defensive rebounds, while the Celtic grab 75.2%, both of these are
near the bottom of the league. So, offensive rebounds should be plentiful and could
be the x-factor in this series. Look for Myles Turner and Amir Johnson to be
scrapping down low.
Stopping Paul George will be key for the Celtics to win this
series. The Celtics have the personnel to contain him, but it will be a key effort.
Jae Crowder and George would be spending a lot of time together, and probably
some quality time with Marcus Smart too. I would expect double teams frequently
in order to get the ball out of his hands, but the Celtics will have to be
careful with that, because the Pacers are great at shooting the three. The
Celtics matchup well here, but I am always wary going up against a player of
Paul George’s caliber in the playoffs.
Atlanta Hawks
For half of the season, the Hawks looked like they had the 5th
spot in the conference locked up, with the potential to maybe crack the top 4.
That is so far out the window that the window isn’t even visible. They have
dropped 8 of their last 10 games and are now just one game above .500 and two
games ahead of the 8th spot in the East. And they are probably the team I want to play
the least. During this slump, the Hawks have been without Paul Millsap who is
probably their best player. Combining him and Dwight Howard makes a frontcourt
that will be tough for the Celtics to defend. Add in two decent to good wing
defenders in Thabo Sefolosha and Kent Bazemore, a point guard with interior scoring
ability in Dennis Schroder, and bench shooting with Tim Hardaway Jr. and Ersan
Ilyasova makes this Hawks team dangerous. We all remember the playoff matchup
last year where the Hawks beat the C’s in 6 games and I think the Hawks are the
most likely team to pull an upset in the first round. I would still favor the
Celtics in a seven-game series, but less so than against the other possible
teams.
The Hawks are elite defensively. Their defensive rating of
103.1 is good for 4th in the league. They are also in the top five
when it comes to steals, so protecting the ball and managing to score would be
essential in a matchup against them. However, perhaps the Hawks’ greatest
defensive strength is their protection of the paint, they allow only 38.9
points per game in the paint. Luckily for the Celtics, that isn’t a big part of
the offense. The C’s are 22nd in the league with 41.8 points in the
paint per game, so they could probably survive on our outside game. Neither
team runs the fast break too much, nor gives up many transition baskets, so
coaching and half court sets will come into play often.
Last playoffs, Paul Millsap killed the Celtics inside.
Slowing him down will be key to the series. Luckily Al Horford should have
plenty of practice and knowledge on how to do this, which is something the team
didn’t have last year. Keeping Dwight Howard below his 13 rebound per game
average at all should be considered a victory and will greatly improve the
Celtics’ chances of winning. The C’s have what it takes to beat Atlanta this
year, but I for one am rooting for the Hawks to keep that 6th seed.
Chicago Bulls
The Bulls have star power, and that can sometimes shift
playoff series by itself. Dwyane Wade, Jimmy Butler, and playoff Rajon Rondo
could spell trouble, but the Celtics have the stoppers to slow them down. The
Bulls lack depth significantly on the inside. Horford could have a field day against
Nikola Mirotic and I would imagine that would be where Brad Stevens’ game plan
starts. The Bulls are one of the worst shooting teams in the league, from both
two-point and three-point range. This means limiting them to one shot is
crucial. If the Celtics can do this, a defensive clinic could be on display in
this potential series. This is where it gets difficult though. The Bulls pull
down the most offensive rebounds in the league this season. However, since the
All-Star break (where they traded big-man Taj Gibson) they are only the 17th
best when it comes to offensive rebounds, grabbing 1.6 less boards per game.
The Celtics need that trend to continue.
The Bulls are another team that I feel like could bring
their game to another level in the playoffs. Every Celtic fan should remember
how much Rondo loves coming big in the playoffs. Add in guys like Dwyane Wade
and Jimmy Butler who have plenty of playoff experience, the Bulls could be a
dangerous team. The Celtics do match up well against them though, so I wouldn’t
be too worried about a round 1 upset.
Conclusion
The bottom half of the Eastern Conference playoff picture is
a mess. The Celtics will probably not find out their opponent in round 1 until
the last day of the season. This Celtic team has improved every year and I
fully expect them to at the very least get out of the first round of the
playoffs this season. Despite this, it feels like almost every single team in
the playoffs could beat anyone else (other than the Cavs, the earliest I could
even imagine them losing is the Eastern Conference Finals). Personally, I think
Celtics fan should want Miami the most in round 1. We match up well on the
perimeter and should be able to pick apart their defense. Next, I would want
Chicago. Dwyane Wade is still out with an elbow injury and will presumably be
rusty, if not limited or out, in the first round of the playoffs. If the
Celtics can defend the perimeter and keep the Bulls off the boards, the C’s
will be fine. Indiana and Atlanta are the two teams I would like to avoid, but
I would take Indiana before Atlanta. Paul George is a different beast come
playoff time and he will be hard to stop, but the overall game of the Hawks has
proven challenging for the Celtics before. Getting Millsap back healthy is key
for the Hawks, if he returns in full, I wouldn’t be surprised if they pull an
upset in round 1, regardless of their opponent (again, except for the
Cavaliers). One thing that these teams all have in common though are their lack
of elite defense at the point guard position. The best defender these teams
have starting there is probably Rondo and he is nowhere near what he once was.
Isaiah Thomas should be able to take advantage of this. Matching up with Goran
Dragic of the Heat would be ideal for him, there is no chance of him keeping IT
in front of him. Celtic fans should keep an eye on the standings over the last
five or six games, but they shouldn’t sweat too much about the first round
opponent, the Celtics will be decent-sized favorites over anyone they play.
