If you have been paying attention to the NBA world recently,
you have probably heard that All-Star power forward Paul Millsap is being
shopped by the Atlanta Hawks. Many Celtics fans’ first reaction to that would
probably be “Great, let’s trade for him, he will bolster our frontcourt which
is exactly what we need and we can probably get him for cheap.” Paul Millsap
would definitely help the frontcourt of the Boston Celtics. Him and Al Horford
have proven to be a viable duo down low in the past. However, I don’t think a
trade for Millsap brings this team over the top in terms of becoming a true
championship contender. If you add in the fact that Millsap is almost 32 years
old, on the last year of his contract (he has a player option that he has
stated he will opt out of), and that the Hawks’ asking price is reportedly “very steep,”
a trade doesn’t really make sense for the Boston Celtics.
An obvious and great weakness this Celtic team has is
rebounding. Everyone knows that by now. Adding Paul Millsap does not really
help that problem. Yes, he is a big and definitely better than Amir Johnson.
For the past three season when Atlanta had both Paul Millsap and Al Horford,
they have been a bottom four team in total rebounds per game every season. That’s
not good. Now, we are the second worst team in terms of total rebound rate, so almost
anything is an improvement, but Paul Millsap is not such a greater rebounder
that he will push us up the ranks. In fact, his career total rebound percentage
(the percentage of available rebounds he grabs while on the floor) is only
14.9%. For comparison, Amir Johnson’s total rebound percentage is 14.8%. So he
really isn’t an improvement over Johnson who he would be replacing in the
starting lineup. The Paul Millsap-Al Horford frontcourt duo has been tried
before. It made for some very good teams. But not a team that could ever beat
LeBron, be it in Cleveland or Miami.
Probably the biggest reason why the Celtics should not trade
for Millsap is that it sounds like he will be demanding a max contract this offseason,
upwards of $35
million a year. Now, the Celtics could probably clear max cap space to sign
him without even going over the salary cap, but does anyone really want to pay
a 32-year-old $35 million a year until he is 36? This will tie up the Celtics’
cap space for the foreseeable future, as we also have extensions for Avery
Bradley, Isaiah Thomas, and Marcus Smart to consider soon. So if the Celtics
were to trade for Millsap, they’d have to either be okay with paying him a lot
of money for a long time (I’m not) or giving up assets for 6 months of Paul
Millsap (I’m not okay with this either).
Now, Paul Millsap is a very good player. He is a three time
All-Star and probably had an argument for Defensive Player of the Year last
season. He would make the Celtics better there is no question about that. But
at what cost? Possible trades that are going around seem to include at least
one promising young player and a first round pick. The Hawks may have been
asking for Gary Harris, Wilson Chandler, and a first rounder from the Nuggets
for Millsap, or Terrence Ross, Patrick Patterson, and possibly a first round
pick from the Raptors. For the Celtics to have a comparable package to those,
we would probably have to give up one of our better young players or a good
first round pick. The two Nets picks should absolutely be off the table for
Millsap, meaning that to even get the Hawks attention we might have to do
something like Marcus Smart and Amir Johnson plus possibly our 2018 pick or the
Grizzlies 2019 pick. That seems like too much to me. Keep in mind that we also
have to pay him $35 million for the next four years if we want to keep him.
Paul Millsap seems to be one the move. The Hawks are
retooling and hoping to get younger and get a couple of good assets for him.
There are many teams that are interested including Toronto, Sacramento, New Orleans,
and Denver meaning that there is the possibility for a bidding war. This is one
that the Celtics should sit out of. We need to keep our young core intact and
keep our valuable draft picks in case the opportunity to acquire a true
superstar comes around. If worst comes to worst and we don’t have a chance to trade
for a superstar, then we have the luxury of using a ton of first round picks to
get an influx of young talent and potential. That’s not a bad worst case
scenario.
